stpatrick<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://mastodon.social/@ErikJonker" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>ErikJonker</span></a></span> <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://a.gup.pe/u/geopolitics" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>geopolitics</span></a></span> </p><p>Caution!</p><p>I strongly warn against exaggerated and naive hopes that this is the breakthrough and that <a href="https://social.tchncs.de/tags/Russia" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Russia</span></a> now has its back against the wall!</p><p>The most likely scenario in my view follows Putin's standard repertoire:</p><p>Russia will pretend to agree to the <a href="https://social.tchncs.de/tags/ceasefire" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ceasefire</span></a> and then launch a false flag operation before the 30 days are up, in which a heavy missile strike or a heavy explosion will take place at a prominent location on Russian soil!</p><p><a href="https://social.tchncs.de/tags/ukraine" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ukraine</span></a> <a href="https://social.tchncs.de/tags/supportUkraine" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>supportUkraine</span></a></p>